PREDICTING LEARNING FROM ASYNCHRONOUS ONLINE DISCUSSIONS
Dezhi Wu
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Department of Information Systems
College of Computing Sciences
New Jersey Institute of Technology
Email: dxw1777@njit.edu
Starr Roxanne Hiltz
Department of Information Systems
College of Computing Sciences
New Jersey Institute of Technology
Email: hiltz@adm.njit.edu
ABSTRACT
Online discussions play an important role in student learning. Currently,
asynchronous learning courses and some primarily face-to-face courses
at New Jersey Institute of Technology require asynchronous online discussions.
Does this requirement improve the students’ perceived learning?
An exploratory study designed to investigate this issue was conducted
in Spring 2002. The questionnaire drew responses to a post-course questionnaire
from 116 students in two undergraduate courses and one graduate course.
A set of items designed to measure perceived learning from online discussions
formed a reliable, unidimensional index for this construct. The results
indicate that online discussions do improve students’ perceived
learning. Variations among instructors or courses are associated with
differences in perceptions of student motivation, enjoyment, and learning
from online discussion. Open-ended questions identified some student
concerns about online discussions. The concluding section of this paper
presents some implications for improving online discussions and for future
research plans.
KEY WORDS
Online discussions, distance education, ALN, e-learning
I. INTRODUCTION
Computer conferencing has become popular in the past two decades. By sharing "some
of the spontaneity of and flexibility of spoken conversation" [1],
computer conferencing successfully transfers the face-to-face conversation
into a virtual space. Because of many benefits for learners, computer
conferencing technologies have been adopted into the education field in
recent decades.
Harasim [2, p. 121] defines computer conferencing as "a
group communications medium enabling groups of people to exchange ideas
and opinions and to share
information and resources." As one study indicates [3],
the benefits of computer conferencing include convenience, place-independence,
time-independence,
and the potential for users to become part of a virtual community. Computer-mediated
communication (CMC) creates a unique environment for discussions that
have removed many barriers for students to participate, because the students
can access their online classroom "anytime, anywhere" via Asynchronous
Learning Networks (ALN). Phillips and Santoro [4] regard "Asynchronicity" as
the main benefit of CMC, and "the idea of having a rapid way to transfer
questions and answers seemed to facilitate participation. "
Online discussions are "a key feature of computer conferencing" [5].
Currently, both asynchronous and synchronous computer conferencing have
been widely used in distance learning courses. Asynchronous online discussions
are our major concern rather than synchronous online discussions that
require real-time online participation. This paper describes a pilot
study that investigates student perceptions of learning from asynchronous
online discussions that were conducted in addition to face-to-face meetings
of the classes (e.g., "mixed" or "blended" mode
courses, which are becoming increasingly prevalent). Over 50 US online
learning program directors who belong to a consortium of colleges and
universities that offer fully online university degree programs responded
to a survey in October 2002 and projected that the proportion of their
students enrolled in totally online courses would increase from 20.2%
to 36.6% in the next few years, but those enrolled in "blended" courses
would increase even faster, from 7.6% to 21.1% of their students [6].
However, there are relatively few studies of the determinants of the
effectiveness of online discussions in blended courses.
Some possible underlying factors that explain perceived learning from
these discussions are explored in this paper, which is structured as
follows. Existing research that indicates how online discussion affects
student learning is reviewed, followed by a description of an exploratory
study conducted in Spring 2002 at New Jersey Institute of Technology.
We then show how the use of online discussion as a learning vehicle affects
the perceptions of student learning. In the last part, the findings of
this study are emphasized and future research is discussed. II. LITERATURE REVIEW
When online discussion becomes part of learning activities in both asynchronous
learning courses and primarily face-to-face courses, does it promote
active student learning? Harasim [7] suggests several key differences
between computer-mediated and face-to-face discussions: time dependence,
place dependence, the structure of communication and richness of communication.
Larkin-Hein [8, p. F2G-6] said, "The use of online discussion groups
offers a relatively new avenue through which the learner can take an
active role in the learning process." However, how computer-mediated
discussion affects the students’ learning is unclear. Over ten
years ago, Hiltz [9, p. 100] asked in the "Virtual Classroom™" project: "whether
students do take a more active part in the learning process and take
advantage of the potential for more interaction with professor and the
other students, despite the absence of nonverbal cues to facilitate this
interaction." In later studies, Harasim [2] points out that learners
often perceive more learning in online interactions compared with a face-to-face
class or on the phone. Althaus [10, p. 158] said, "In theory, online
discussions help more students learn better by placing them in an intellectual
environment that encourages active, thoughtful, and equal participation
from all comers."
Althaus [10] examines whether supplementing face-to-face discussion
with computer-mediated discussion (CMD) enhances the academic performance
of undergraduate students in large lecture classes. One hundred and forty-two
undergraduates were involved in this study which found that a combination
of face-to-face and computer-mediated discussion provides a superior
learning environment compared to the traditional classroom alone.
Hein and Irvine [11] present data results from a pilot study at American
University during Spring 1998. The pilot study focused on assessing the
effectiveness of the discussions in terms of students’ understanding
of physics. Sixty-two students volunteered to participate in the online
discussion group. Two purposes of online discussion in this study are
addressed: (1) to give students a new vehicle through which to learn
physics; and (2) to allow the authors an opportunity to study and assess
the impact of the online discussions on students’ learning of physics.
The findings are: (1) students found the online discussions were beneficial
and useful; (2) many students think that online discussion should be
continued in future classes; (3) students respond that online participation
should remain voluntary because of sufficient other activities required
in the course; (4) the instructor’s role is not only to provide
the opportunity for in-depth investigation into a topic, but also to
provide constructive feedback to students in the online discussion process.
Larkin-Hein [8] reports ongoing research designed to address the role
of student understanding in physics using an online discussion group
format. In terms of gauging student understanding in physics, this research
assesses the effectiveness of online discussion groups as a learning
and assessment tool. The findings are as follows: (1) Online discussions
provide an additional learning and teaching vehicle. (2) Online discussions
facilitate the acquisition of higher-order thinking skills. (3) Students
became more adept at transferring and applying information learned in
class to novel situations. (4) Further study is needed to investigate
how personal learning styles affect online discussion.
Thomas' [12] study of online discussion assumed that the nature of computer-mediated
communication impacts students’ learning. Survey, case study and
content analysis methods were used in data analysis. This study found
that online discussion forums promote high levels of cognitive engagement
and critical thinking. However, the virtual learning space of an online
forum does not promote the coherent and interactive dialogue necessary
for conversational modes of learning. To overcome incoherence, the role
of moderator and facilitator of discussion is important in the online
discussion forum.
A large survey was conducted at SUNY Albany in Spring 1999 [13]. Thirty
eight hundred students who enrolled in 264 courses through SLN (SUNY
Learning Network) responded to a post-course survey. The findings show
that three factors (consistency in course design, contact with course
instructors, and active discussion) significantly influence the success
of online courses. The researcher also found that interaction with instructors,
interaction with peers, and the value placed on participation in course
discussions are the factors most significantly related to student perceptions
of learning. These findings support the importance of interaction for
online teaching and learning. However, none of the prior studies provide
or test a causal model of the determinants of perceived learning from
online discussions.
Are there differences between males and females in their participation
in and benefits from online discussions? There have been mixed results
for this question [14]. On the one hand, early studies of computer-supported
learning showed that women tended to be at a disadvantage because they
are less likely to have their own computer and have less confidence about
their expertise with computers. On the other hand, females consistently
out-score males on tests of verbal ability [15], and CMC discussions
are thus potentially a place for female students to do better and feel
more comfortable than male students.
III. RESEARCH MODEL DESIGN
What are the processes that determine whether online discussions will
result in improved learning? Online discussions that persist throughout
the week should motivate students to be more engaged in their course
on a continuous basis, and to think through the concepts and issues more
thoroughly, because they need to restate the issues in their own words.
Secondly, active participation in online discussions, which are student-dominated
rather than instructor-dominated, should be enjoyable for the students.
It should make learning more active and "fun." These are shown
as the intervening processes or variables in the model, and should help
to explain variations in resulting perceived learning.
A variety of "independent" or contextual variables may influence
whether students will be motivated to take part in online discussions,
and whether they will enjoy them. For this initial version of the model,
we included three such variables. Those who have taken prior online courses
should be more familiar with the process of online discussions and thus
should feel less anxiety and uncertainty, resulting in higher motivation
and higher enjoyment. Gender is related to reading and writing skills,
and thus females may experience online discussions as more motivating
and enjoyable than males; on the other hand, they are less confident
with the use of computers; these factors may balance out. Finally, the
instructor's role in framing and facilitating online discussion activities
is crucial to their success.
The following research model (see Figure 1) is our framework to guide
this study.

Figure 1: Online Discussion Research Model
IV. RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND HYPOTHESES A. Research Questions
Q1: Can we obtain a measure of perceived learning from online discussions
that will have high internal consistency?
Q2: Can we devise measures of motivation from learning online, and enjoyment
of learning online, that will have discriminant validity and high internal
consistency?
These questions will be tested with Cronbach’s Alpha and confirmatory
factor analysis. B. Research Hypotheses
The following research hypotheses are derived from the model.
Hypothesis 1: Students who perceive more motivation from online discussion
will report higher perceptions of learning from online discussion.
Hypothesis 2: Students who perceive more enjoyment from online discussion
will report higher perceptions of learning from online discussion.
Hypothesis 3: Students who have previously taken more distance learning
courses will attain higher perceptions of learning, more motivation and
more enjoyment.
In our research model, gender is considered as an independent variable.
As Gilligan [16] suggests, males and females have different communication
patterns. Women tend to provide mitigating and social comments while men
address issues directly and eventually—via discussion—downplay
the female contribution. Do gender differences affect the learning from
online discussions? Many gender studies, focusing on education, find there
are no strong differences between female and male students. Ory [17] did
not find any gender differences in the use of and attitudes about ALN, after
one year of implementation in a university setting. Another gender study
[18] indicates that women think of the virtual classroom as an opportunity
for collaboration and networking with other participants, while men emphasize
the message content. The results of this study also show that there are
no significant gender differences in learning, and moderately significant
differences in class participation. Therefore, we expect there will be no
gender differences in online discussions context.
Hypothesis 4: There will be no difference between female and male students
in perceptions of learning, motivation and enjoyment from online discussions.
We are concerned about the instructor’s role in online discussions.
From previous studies, the instructor role is a complicated factor in determining
students’ motivation, and perceived learning. In her "Virtual
Classroom™" project, Hiltz [19, p.102] said, "The key
activity in the Virtual Classroom is the exchange of ideas and information
among students, with the faculty member as an organizer and facilitator
of the activities and discussions." Gorham and Zakahi [20] point out
that decreased students’ learning outcomes are related to increased
physical and/or psychological distance between teachers and students. Another
study [21] identifies a positive correlation between teacher immediacy behaviors
and students’ learning, though different racial and ethnic groups
have different meanings of immediacy behaviors. However, Gorham and Christopher
[22] found that students regarded motivation as being determined by themselves
rather than the instructors. A recent study [12] shows that the role of
instructor is important in online discussions. Based on these studies, we
present our Hypothesis 5 as follows:
Hypothesis 5: Instructors will play an essential role in promoting students’ motivation,
enjoyment and perceptions of learning online.
V. METHOD
Our study was conducted in Spring 2002 at New Jersey Institute of Technology.
Online discussions in three courses were conducted on WebBoard™ and
WebCT™, both including asynchronous computer conferencing systems.
Participants included 116 students from two undergraduate courses and one
graduate course. All of these sections were "mixed mode" courses
for which asynchronous online discussions were added to face-to-face class
meetings. These three courses met three hours per week for the whole Spring
semester. Instructors gave the traditional face-to-face lectures in the
classroom. They not only assigned students course readings, writing, and
projects as usual, but also required weekly asynchronous online discussions
via WebBoard™ or WebCT™. The topics of these online discussions
were based on course designs and objectives. Students shared their learning
experiences and had intensive online participation throughout the whole
semester. At the end of the Spring 2002 semester, the students who voluntarily
participated in our study signed consent forms and filled out post-course
questionnaires based on the whole semester’s online discussion experience.
The details of student and course information are listed in Table 1.
Table 1: Number of Subjects in the study in Spring 2002

Among these participants, 61.2% are pursuing their Bachelor’s degree,
33.6% are Master students, 2.6% are in graduate certificate programs, 0.9%
are non-matriculated, which means not officially being admitted into a Master’s
program, and 1.7% are Ph. D. students majoring in Information Systems
or Management of Information Systems. Regarding their gender, 34.5% are
females
and 65.5% are males. In addition, 44% of these participants are between
18–22 years old, 33.6% are between 22–25, 16.4% are between 26–35, 3.4%
are between 36–45, 1.7% are between 46–55, and the rest (0.9%) didn’t
provide their age information. Native speakers are a slight majority (59.5%)
and 40.5% speak English as their second language. More detailed ethnicity
information indicates that 27.6% of these participants are white Americans,
48.3% are Asian Americans, 11.2% are African Americans, and the rest (12.9%)
are from other nations.
VI. RESEARCH RESULTS Descriptive statistics were used to summarize
the basic findings and correlation analysis was used to explore underlying
relationships among variables.
A. Basic Findings
The raw data gathered from the three courses were analyzed by using
Excel™ and SPSS™. Our basic findings are shown in terms
of perceived learning effects, motivation, enjoyment and correlations
among variables.
Table 2 (see Appendix) presents students’ perceptions of learning
from online discussion. Over half of the students felt that they learned
a great deal from their peers through online discussion. Fifty-seven
percent of the students thought online discussion increased their learning
quality (mean=3.72). Over 78% of students thought online discussion
was a great chance to share opinions among peers and instructor. A
confirmatory factor analysis was performed to determine if all of the
items designed to measure perceived learning loaded on a single factor;
they do. In addition, the Cronbach’s Alpha of over 0.90 indicates
high internal consistency for the set of items. Therefore, these results
answer the research question 1: we have a good measure of students’ perceived
learning from online discussions.
Students were also asked about the online discussion motivation and
enjoyment. Table 3 (see Appendix) shows that about half of the students
were motivated by and enjoyed sharing knowledge with their peers through
online discussion. These results are less positive than we anticipated,
but they do provide considerable variance for testing our model.
Table 3 (see Appendix) shows the answer for research question 2: we
could not distinguish students’ motivation and enjoyment based
on our current research instruments. Initially, the first four items
were designed to measure the extent to which online discussion motivated
students to be more interested and work harder. They were intended
to form an index to measure motivation. The last four items were intended
to form an index to measure the extent to which online discussion was
an enjoyable experience. However, a confirmatory factor analysis showed
that the eight items comprise a single construct, not two separate
constructs. Therefore, they were combined into a single index, which
has high internal consistency (Cronbach’s Alpha=0.9006).
About 68% of students reported that their instructor played a critical
role to motivate effective online discussions, and only 14% of students
disagreed. (see Table 4 in Appendix and Figure 2).

Figure 2: Instructor’s Role in Online Discussions
B. Correlation Analysis
To explore the underlying dimensions and test our research hypotheses,
we used correlation analysis for the data gathered via questionnaires.
Looking at the correlations in Table 5, the following statements show
that four of the research hypotheses are supported, while one of the
research hypotheses is not supported. (Of course, it must be remembered
that correlation does not prove causation.)
Hypotheses 1 and 2: Students who perceive more motivation and enjoyment
from online discussion will report higher perceptions of learning from
online discussion. (Supported)
It can be seen from the table that a significant correlation of .477
indicates that those who perceive more motivation and enjoyment from
online discussions also rate themselves higher for perception of learning
from online discussions.
Hypothesis 3: Students who have previously taken more distance learning
courses will attain higher perceptions of learning, more motivation
and more enjoyment from online discussion. (Not supported)
Hypothesis 4: There will be no difference between female and male
students in perceptions of learning, motivation and enjoyment from
online discussions. (Supported)
Hypothesis 5: The instructor will play an essential role in promoting
students’ motivation, enjoyment and perceptions of learning online.
(Supported)
Table 2: Correlation Analysis: Perceived
Learning, Motivation and Enjoyment Indexes from Online Discussions 
C. Data Results from Open-ended Questions
From the questionnaires, we also analyzed some responses from open-ended
questions.
Students were asked to comment about what they think should be improved
in the online discussion process. The students’ responses to
this question included:
- "Instructors need more interesting topics to guide
the online discussion, such as case studies"
- "Students need the basic tutorial to use the software, such as
how to use WebBoard™/WebCT™"
- "Students need more feedback from either peers or instructors"
- "Instructor needs to spend more time to catch the online discussion"
- "Synchronous online discussion should be a good supplement"
- "It is not easy to follow a big group. Too many people"
- "Difficult to consistently log online to participate in discussion"
- "Frustration about the software down"
- "Need more clear format for online discussion beforehand"
- "Need user-friendlier interface"
- "Some comments are not so useful"
- "Instructors should be available online for two or three hours
everyday so that students can ask questions whenever they want…"
- "Assign rules to lead discussion"
- "The motivation put forth by the professor is very important"
When students were also asked what they liked best in the online discussion,
answers included:
- "Interaction (Students also expect more interaction
with their instructors)"
- "Convenience"
- "Ease of use"
- "Less pressure"
- "Anonymity feature"
- "Provides more social interaction"
- "Flexibility of time and space"
- "No transportation needed"
- "The dynamic nature of content and the sharing of experiences among
peers"
- "Being connected between students and instructor"
- "Clearly and openly express opinions without fear"
Overall, the results of the above questions suggested that students
found the online discussions beneficial and useful to them. Many students
felt that online discussions have benefited their learning skills and
have improved their learning quality. The students enjoyed the flexibility
of online discussions.
These students’ comments are valuable for improving the teaching
quality of online discussions because these responses identify some
weakness of current online discussions. For example, some students
suggest improving user interfaces, needing more guidance from their
instructors, and adding more interesting discussion topics. The suggestion
that instructors should devote more time online may not be reasonable,
given total instructor workloads. More structured online discussions
will avoid or decrease inefficient online discussions. To some extent,
active student online participation is a matter of students being made
comfortable with the medium [19]. Especially for students who have
less computer experience, better software interface and functionalities
are desirable.
Furthermore, these comments provide some clues for the future of online
discussion research, because they identify some useful factors that
may be included in further studies, such as how unstructured vs. structured
online discussions will affect students’ perceived learning. VII. CONTRIBUTIONS
Based on the previous studies, this study contributes in several ways:
The study provides an initial research model that may be expanded
and generalized for future online discussion studies. Most prior studies
focused on broader topics, such as collaborative learning, the evaluation
of online courses and so forth. Our research model aims to increase
and deepen understanding of how students perceive learning from online
discussions.
Our study is also one of the few that identify underlying factors
that affect perceived learning from online discussions. We found two
highly reliable index variables: one is "perceived learning from
online discussions" (Cronbach’s Alpha=0.9049) and the other
is "students’ motivation and enjoyment from online discussions" (Cronbach’s
Alpha=0.9006). These two variables have been tested by confirmatory
factor analysis; so they can be used as validated instruments in future
research.
VIII. LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDY
The generalizability of our findings is limited in many ways. Only
a small number of courses and instructors were included, and all of
these were "mixed" mode courses at a single university. We
need to compare these results to those for totally online courses.
Instructor's role and level of activity were measured by a single item,
and only in terms of student perceptions. A measure of perceived instructor
role should have more items that distinguish among different dimensions
of the discussion leader role. In the current study, only students’ perceived
learning from online discussions was measured; objective learning effects
may be different from perceived learning.
The most severe limitation is that a single post-course survey cannot
prove "causality." The measures of perceived learning were
collected at the same time as the measures of instructor role behavior
and perceived motivation and enjoyment. It may be that students do
not clearly separate their enjoyment of the process of online discussion
from their learning as a result of that discussion. A longitudinal
study that measured the levels of enjoyment/motivation and instructor
behavior, and of perceived learning at different points in time, followed
by an objective measure of learning from the contents of the discussion,
would go far towards establishing the causal relationship among these
correlated variables.
IX. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
In this paper, the results suggest that online discussions definitely
improved students’ perceived learning in the "mixed mode," meaning
classes that meet face-to-face and also require additional asynchronous
online discussions. A research model was generated to explore the underlying
variables that affect perceived learning from online discussions. The
findings demonstrate that variations among instructors or courses are
associated with differences in perceptions of student motivation, enjoyment
and learning. There are no significant gender differences in online
discussions. A surprising result is that the number of Distance Learning
courses that students previously took has no relationship with perceived
learning from online discussions. From open-ended questions, students’ reactions
and concerns about online discussions show that the instructor plays
an important role to motivate effective online discussions; more online
guidance, more structured discussion topics and considerable time devotion
are required for instructors. Future research is needed that looks
at a much larger data set, preferably from multiple universities, and
that compares pure ALN courses to face-to-face plus online discussion
courses, and adds additional contextual variables such as students’ learning
styles as a new factor into the online discussion research model. It
is also desirable to redesign the research instrument to further explore
measures of motivation and enjoyment. Another topic for research is
how newer mobile PCs and the use of digital audio as well as text-based
discussion, may affect the process of participation in, and perceived
learning from online discussions.
X. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors especially thank Professors Il Im, Morgan Benton and
Karen Patten for encouraging their students to participate in our
study.
We also thank Professor Marilyn Tremaine and Il Im and our anonymous
reviewers for their helpful comments on an earlier draft. A preliminary
version of the paper appeared in the proceedings of the Americas
Conference on Information Systems, Tampa, FL, USA, August 2003.
This research was partially supported by the New Jersey Center
for Pervasive
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XII. APPENDIX
Table 3: Students' Perception of Learning from
Online Discussion
Questionnaire Category: SA=Strongly Agree; A=Agree; N=Neither Agree nor disagree
(neutral); D=Disagree; SD=Strongly Disagree; S. D.=Standard Deviation;
N=Number of Responses

Table 4: Online Discussion Motivation and Enjoyment
Questionnaire Category: SA=Strongly Agree; A=Agree; N=Neither Agree nor disagree
(neutral); D=Disagree; SD=Strongly Disagree; S. D.=Standard Deviation;
N=Number of Responses

Table 5: Instructor Role
Questionnaire Category: SA=Strongly Agree; A=Agree; N=Neither Agree nor disagree
(neutral); D=Disagree; SD=Strongly Disagree; S. D.=Standard Deviation;
N=Number of Responses

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